🥛 Collapse of the Dairy System in Tunisia: Root Causes, Impact of Imports, and Health Risks of Powdered Milk

The dairy sector in Tunisia is one of the most important agricultural production chains, dependent on thousands of breeders, dozens of factories and millions of consumers. However, in recent years, this sector has gone through a severe crisis leading to a shortage of milk on the market, a drop in local production and a massive recourse to powdered milk.
This text offers a global vision explaining how the sector collapsed, what aggravated the crisis and why powdered milk has become a central element of the situation.

🔵 1) Price freeze: the spark that ignited the collapse

For several years, the State kept the selling price of milk to consumers at a low level to control purchasing power. But at the same time:

• Livestock feed prices have reached record levels.
• The cost of transport, energy and labor has increased.
• Drugs and veterinary care have become more expensive.
• Most inputs are sold at free market prices without subsidies.

Meanwhile, the price paid to the producer remained frozen and far from the real cost of production.

🔥 Result:
The breeder sells at a loss, losing between 0.3 and 0.6 dinars per liter even before the milk arrives at the factory.
Thus, the collapse began at the base of the sector: the agricultural producer.

🔴 2) The losses of the breeders lead to the departure of thousands of producers

With daily losses continuing, breeders had to face difficult choices:

• Sell their cows to repay debts
• Reduce or stop production
• Completely abandon dairy cow breeding

In just a few years, Tunisia lost a significant part of its dairy herd, an element that is difficult to rebuild quickly.

🟠 3) Factories face a shortage of fresh milk

After the drop in production:

• Collection centers receive small quantities.
• Factories are operating at half capacity or less.
• Some production lines have been shut down.

In the absence of sufficient fresh milk, factories have started looking for a stable and “inexpensive” substitute »…

🟣 4) The State facilitates the importation of milk powder: temporary but destructive solution in the long term

To deal with the shortage, the State took several measures, including:

✔️ Removal of customs duties on the importation of milk powder

This decision, confirmed by international media sources, aimed to guarantee supply but encouraged factories to rely more on powdered milk, because it is:

• Cheaper than local fresh milk
• Easy to store
• Consistent quality
• Does not require an expensive cold chain

❗ Serious consequence:
Factories tend to use powdered milk instead of local milk, which increases pressure on farmers and reduces the demand for milk raw.
Thus, a quick fix was created but it paved the way for a deeper collapse.

🟢 5) Difference between fresh milk and powdered milk: scientific truth

🌿 Fresh milk

• Rich in natural vitamins
• Contains intact complete proteins
• Contains enzymes aiding digestion
• Highly assimilable calcium
• Produced locally, supporting thousands of families

🏭 Milk powder

• Produced from milk heated to high temperatures and then dried
• Losses 20 to 50% of heat-sensitive vitamins
• Protein structure can be modified by heat
• Fats vegetables or additives can be added
• Depends entirely on importation

⚠️ 6) Health risks of milk powder

1️⃣ Loss of nutritional value: vitamins B and C greatly reduced
2️⃣ Modification of proteins: Maillard reaction which can cause allergies or difficult digestion
3️⃣ Possible addition of unhealthy fats: hydrogenated oils, additives, sugars → risk of obesity, heart disease, digestive disorders
4️⃣ Risk for children: does not completely replace natural milk
5️⃣ Storage problems and humidity: loss of quality without the consumer noticing

🟤 7) Economic and social risks of importing milk in powder

🟥 Weakening local production: cheaper milk powder reduces demand for fresh local milk, leading to fewer breeders
🟥 Loss of thousands of jobs: from producer to transporter to factory worker
🟥 Total dependence on foreigners: falling local production increases importation, making the country vulnerable to price fluctuations worldwide
🟥 Loss of national food security: milk being an essential product, any global shortage can trigger a severe crisis in Tunisia

🟩 8) Vicious circle having destroyed the dairy sector

• Freezing of the price of milk for the consumer
• Massive losses for breeders
• Sale of cows and exit from production
• Milk shortage raw
• Importation of powdered milk
• Unfair competition for the local producer
• Collapse of the national herd
• Dependence on world markets
• Rarely available and increasing cost

This spiral led Tunisia to a continuous dairy crisis.

🟦 Conclusion: crisis initiated by the price and ended by the collapse of the sector

The collapse of the dairy sector in Tunisia was not caused by a single factor but by short-term political decisions, in particular:

• Freezing of prices despite the increase in production costs
• Absence of national strategy for livestock feed
• Facilitation of the entry of powdered milk into the market
• Lack of protection for breeders local

Today, the sector requires a complete reform including:

• Revision of prices
• Encouragement of local production
• Regulation of powdered milk imports
• Support for livestock feed
• Reconstitution of the national herd over several years
• Digitalization and control of the production and distribution chain

Without these reforms, Tunisia will continue to suffer from shortages, scarcity and dependence abroad.